Photo : Ministry of Defence of Russia
08 February 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #431
War in Ukraine: Day 349
By Madhura S Mahesh
War on the Ground
On 07 February, Ukrenergo stated that scheduled blackouts would resume in the Odesa region by the weekend given that there are no fresh attacks by Russia. Ukrenergo said that the current emergency shutdowns are aiding the workers in fixing the damaged electricity grids. It said: “Seven teams from Ukrenergo and one of our colleagues from JSC DTEK Odesa Electrical Grids are working around the clock to fix the damage.”
On 07 February, Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said that indigenously produced weapons can be used to attack targets within Russia. Danilov said: “Regarding Russian territory, nobody prohibits us to destroy targets with weapons produced in Ukraine. Do we have such weapons? Yes, we do.” Additionally, Danilov said that Ukraine will not be another Korea. He said: “There will be no 38s or other parallels, the stories of others and scenarios imposed from the outside.”
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 06 February, Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin said that the price of Urals crude oil is no longer dictated by the EU. Sechin said: “If Russian oil does not enter the European market, then there is no reference price. Reference prices will be formed where oil volumes actually go.” This comes as the majority of Russian oil is being exported to Asia with India receiving over 70 per cent of the total exports in January. He also added that any future contracts and settlements with European buyers should be dropped to regulate the oil market indicators.
On 07 February, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said that the Russian Armed Forces are succeeding in Ugledar and Artemovsk. Shoigu added that the Russian Forces had freed additional settlements in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions which include Soledar, Kleshcheevka, Podgornoye, Krasnopolye, Blagodatnoye, Lobkovoe and Nikolaevka. He claimed that the US and its allies are extending the conflict by providing Ukraine with “heavy offensive weapons.” He added: “The Armed Forces of Ukraine strike residential areas, hospitals, places of concentration of civilians, commit terrorist acts at state and social facilities.”
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 07 February, the UK Defence Intelligence claimed that Russia in the past month has been trying to restart extensive offensive operations in Ukraine. It also said that one of the goals of this new offence is to take over the rest of Ukraine-controlled territories in the Donetsk Oblast. According to the agency, Russia has only taken control of “several hundred metres of territory per week” due to the lack of ammunition and military units needed for successful assaults. With increased pressure by Russian leaders, it claims that military commanders will chart out offensives which include “undermanned and inexperienced units” to achieve the goals.
On 07 February, Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands Defence Ministries launched a joint initiative to supply Ukraine with Leopard 1 A5 battle tanks. Through the initiative, the three countries will provide Ukraine with 100 refurbished Leopard 1 A5 battle tanks from their industrial stocks. The joint initiative will also include ammunition, spare parts and training the Ukranian personnel. In a joint statement: “This initiative will contribute to substantially and sustainably strengthening the Ukrainian armed forces.” It also said that the initiative aims to complement the Leopard 2 main battle tanks being supplied to Ukraine.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the war
On 07 February, global south countries participating in the India Energy Week urged rich countries to stop introducing roadblocks for poorer countries looking to secure energy supplies. Bangladeshi officials said Bangladesh’s energy security was hampered by Western sanctions on Russia had led to increased gas prices. Bangladesh Prime Minister’s energy advisor Bir Bikram Tawfiq-e-Elahi Chowdhury said: “There were ships floating around Western Europe carrying gas, and other countries were not able to buy because of the price.” With the increased sanctions on Russian gas, many countries including India have turned to coal to prevent electricity shortages.
References
“Odesa region may return to scheduled shutdowns on weekend - Ukrenergo,” Ukrinform, 07 February 2023
“Ukraine no Korea: NSDC secretary to Russia’s Medvedev,” Ukrinform, 07 February 2023
“EU no longer dictates price for Russian oil – Rosneft CEO,” RT, 07 February 2023
“The Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation held a conference call with the leadership of the Armed Forces,” mil.ru, 07 February 2023
“Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 7 February 2023,” Twitter, 07 February 2023
“Starting a new Leopard Initiative,” bmvg.de, 07 February 2023
Florence Tan and Mohi Narayan “'Move away from hypocrisy': Global South demands energy justice,” Reuters, 08 January 2023